A Spatial Analysis of Crime in East Java Province in 2019


  • Choirul Ummah STIS Polytechnic of Statistics
  • Rini Rahani STIS Polytechnic of Statistics




crime, overdispersion, negative binomial, GWNBR


Crime is one of the consequences of fluctuations in the economic condition of a country. Crime incidents harm many parties. The number of criminal acts increased in 2019, especially in Sumatra and Java Island. Most provinces experienced an increasing number of criminal acts, one of them was East Java. East Java contributed more than a quarter of the number of crimes throughout Java Island. The number of criminal acts is count data with overdispersion because its variance is higher than its average. This study aims to analyze the number of criminal acts by applying Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression (GWNBR). The result shows that GWNBR formed two regional groups based on significant variables. The four independent variables namely the unemployment rate, the number of poor people, the Gini ratio, and the police population ratio have a significant effect on all districts/cities. However, the mean year of schooling shows a significant effect only in certain districts/cities. The GWNBR is the best model in modelling the number of criminal acts in East Java.