Learning Bayesian Network for Rainfall Prediction Modeling in Urban Area using Remote Sensing Satellite Data (Case Study: Jakarta, Indonesia)

Abstract

Rainfall modeling is one of the most critical factors in agricultural monitoring and statistics, transportation schedules, and urban flood prevention. Weather anomaly during the dry season in urban coastal areas of tropical countries such as Jakarta, Indonesia has become a challenging issue that causes unexpected changes in rain patterns. In this paper, we propose the Bayesian Network (BN) approach to model the probabilistic nature of rain patterns in urban areas and causal relationships among its predictor variables. Rain occurrences are predicted using temperature, relative humidity, mean-sea level (MSL) pressure, cloud cover, and precipitation variables. Data are obtained from the remote sensing sources of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellite in Jakarta 2020-2021. We compare both of the score-based, i.e., Hill Climbing (HC), and hybrid structure learning algorithms of Bayesian Network including the techniques of Max-Min Hill Climbing (MMHC), General 2-Phase Restricted Maximization (RSMAX2), and Hybrid-Hybrid Parents & Children (H2PC). Further, we also compare the performance of score-based model (Hill Climbing) under five different popular scorings: Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), K2, Log-Likelihood, Bayesian Dirichlet Equivalent (BDE), and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) methods. The main contributions of this study are as follows: (1) insights that the hybrid structure learning algorithms of Bayesian Network models are either superior in performance or at least comparable to its score-based counterparts (2) our proposed best performed Bayesian Network model that is able to predict the rain occurrences in Jakarta with a promising overall accuracy of more than 81 percent.