Analysis of Factors Affecting Deforestation in Riau From 2001 To 2023 Using The ARDL Approach

Abstract

Forests are one of the most important elements for human life. One of Indonesia's
problems for decades has been high rates of deforestation. Riau is the province with the highest
total deforestation in Indonesia in the last 23 years. The government has implemented various
measures to achieve both short-term and long-term targets related to reducing deforestation.
Therefore, this study aims to analyze the variables suspected of influencing deforestation in the
short and long term using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag. The results of the study indicate
that the variables influencing deforestation in Riau Province in the short term are the GDP of the
agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors and forest and land fires. In the long term, the
significant influencing variables are the GDP of the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors,
the implementation of Law No. 18 of 2013, and the extent of forest and land fires. Based on
these findings, in the short term, the government is expected to transform the agricultural sector
economy toward a more sustainable direction and halt the clearing of forest areas for oil palm
plantations, especially those conducted through forest burning. In the long term, the government
should further strengthen the implementation of the law.