The Influences of Climate Change and Social Vulnerability on Dengue Fever Incidence Rate in West Java Province 2019–2023

Abstract

In Indonesia, dengue fever is a serious public health problem. The increase in dengue fever cases is influenced by climate change and social vulnerability factors. This study focuses on West Java Province in 2019–2023, aiming to describe the spatial-temporal pattern of dengue fever incidence and analyze the influence of climate factors and social vulnerability using a spatial-temporal model, namely Geographically Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR). The exploration results show a high concentration of dengue fever incidence rates in 2019, while in 2023, the intensity of dengue fever incidence decreases. The GTWR model produces local parameters across various regions and time periods, indicating that in most regencies/cities, rainfall, population density, access to inadequate sanitation, health facility ratio, and education level have a positive effect on dengue fever incidence rates, while land surface temperature and the percentage of poor people have a negative effect. From the GTWR model results, areas with high levels of dengue fever vulnerability can be identified as priorities for dengue fever management interventions. Therefore, this study contributes to early warning research and dengue fever control program planning by considering the risk of dengue fever vulnerability in each region.