Spatial Modelling of the Relationship Between the Characteristics of Vegetation Index, Life Expectancy and Fertility Rate in Banten Province

Abstract

Rapid urbanization in Banten Province has reduced green open spaces, impacting environmental sustainability and demographic dynamics. This study analyzes the spatial relationship between vegetation index, life expectancy (LE), and total fertility rate (TFR) using Landsat 8 imagery (2020–2024) and demographic data from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS). The vegetation index, measured using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), was examined alongside LE and TFR through Pearson correlation and Moran’s I spatial autocorrelation. The results indicate a moderate negative correlation between NDVI and LE (r = -0.561, p < 0.05) and a strong negative correlation between LE and TFR (r ? -0.94). Urban areas such as Tangerang City and South Tangerang City, despite having low vegetation cover, recorded higher LE due to adequate healthcare access. Conversely, rural areas with greater vegetation tended to have lower LE. Spatial analysis identified urban centers as hotspots with high LE, while rural regions appeared as coldspots. These findings confirm that healthcare access and socioeconomic factors can compensate for limited vegetation, while demographic transitions contribute to fertility decline, ultimately supporting sustainable development in Banten Province.