A Multi-Temporal Remote Sensing Approach to Quantify Land Cover Change and its Impact on Ecosystem Sustainability in Riau, Indonesia

Abstract

This study analyzes land cover change in Riau Province from 2015 to 2024, focusing
on deforestation and degradation as indicators of ecosystem sustainability. Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS
and Landsat 9 OLI-2 imagery processed in Google Earth Engine (GEE), combined with MODIS
hotspot data (MOD14A1) and socioeconomic indicators—Gross Regional Domestic Product
(GRDP) and Open Unemployment Rate (OUR) from Statistics Indonesia (BPS)—were used to
assess spatiotemporal patterns. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was
applied with thresholds for deforestation (NDVI < –0.3) and degradation (–0.3 ? NDVI ? –0.1).
Results show that 2015 was the most severe period, dominated by peatland fires, while 2019
recorded forest loss at a lower intensity and 2020–2024 indicated partial vegetation recovery
linked to restoration efforts. Pelalawan, Indragiri Hilir, and Kampar were the most affected
districts. Correlation analysis revealed that fire hotspots had the strongest association with land
cover change, while economic and social indicators showed weaker relationships. Peatland fires
remain the main driver of land degradation, emphasizing the need to strengthen fire management,
peatland protection, and sustainable plantation governance to support Sustainable Development
Goal (SDG) 15 on Life on Land, particularly the target of Land Degradation Neutrality (15.3.1)
by 2030.